Dual-venue decision lab / v0.1
Find the seam.
Price the uncertainty.
A falsifiable sports-value workbench for Polymarket and Kalshi. Normalize the contract, de-vig three books, model costs, then record a bounded paper intent.
01
Contract desk
Source exact markets
P
Fixturepolymarketpublic market data
Synthetic demonstration market
Harbor City59.0¢executable ask
Ridge United42.0¢executable ask
Exact rules require manual equivalence review.
Not assumed equivalentWording · timing · overtime · resolution source
K
Fixturekalshipublic market data
Harbor City wins — synthetic demonstration market
Harbor City60.0¢executable ask
Ridge United44.0¢executable ask
Exact rules require manual equivalence review.
Synthetic fixtures are loaded until you request public data.
02
Three-book medianFair-line input
De-vig the consensus
SourceTargetOppositeFair target
Book A
Book B
Book C
Consensus fair probability65.9%Median of independently de-vigged two-way books
03
Price seam
Compare executable asks
65.9%fair59.0¢Poly60.0¢Kalshi
Polymarket gross seam688 bps
Kalshi gross seam588 bps
Title similarity is not contract equivalence. No cross-venue arbitrage claim is made.
04
Paper onlyPaper intent
Run the risk gate
P
Target contractHarbor CityWill Harbor City win on August 9?
DecisionBlocked
- Gross edge
- 688 bps
- Estimated fee
- Unverified
- Net edge
- Fail closed
- Approved notional
- $250.00
- A verified non-negative venue fee estimate is required
Browser-local paper log
Decision evidence
No paper intents yet. Nothing is sent to either venue.